In connection with a comment from a reader, who states ‘Jaakko Pöyry is not God’, I feel I should say something about my data sources.
First of all, I am a social scientist, not an analytic of a business, so I have to rely on what is public (I don’t have the possibility to buy Pöyry’s reports, which cost around 20.000 euros). So my weak point is that I don’t have very exact data – because I work in the University of Turku, not in the Finnish Forest Research Institute.
So what do I have? I use the data from the Groningen Growth and Development Center for comparisons at the European level. Eurostat has a lot of useful information but not always for the same countries for the same period and variable. Then, specifically for the paper industry, I employ the Finnish Statistical Yearbook of Forestry a lot for trends in wages, productivity etc. Finally, I have gotten version of the World Paper Markets up to 2025 -report by Jaakko Pöyry from 2008, which is probably too old already, given the economic crisis and what-not.
It may be true, that especially through the latter report I do have a pessimistic view of the board industry, which is perhaps not entirely warranted – after all, there are several new production lines in board in construction in Finland, and also e.g. the Simpele mill (Metsä Board) is renewed, while its paper production line was shut down.
So, I will try to parse data and news better, but I have to make do with what I have got. The distinction between the paper industry and the board/packaging industry is important to keep in mind though!