Finnish, Dutch and German bond rates – low but going up?

One critical indicator in the Eurocrisis has been the interest rate on government bonds, and in particular the spread between German bonds and others has been seen as very relevant. The explanation for low German yields has been often the ‘safe haven’ argument – investors flocking to government bonds that are still safe. Another argument is that in countries like Germany “the household, business, and foreign sectors want to spend much less than they earn, pushing interest rates to exceptionally low levels, and signaling that the public sector in these countries needs to borrow more and spend more to pick up the slack.” (link)

I finally found a site which has yield data on a historical rather than daily graph, but alas no spreads with German Bunds. Obviously, as has been warned so often, one should not read too much in changes, but for Finland, the Netherlands and Germany recently bond yields have gone up. In any case, it makes it more expensive for governments to borrow, so given current politics, it is likely that e.g. the Finnish goverment will soon indicate the need for more cuts, if this upward movement continues (note that I do not know much about the current financing needs of the Finnish state and when these are supposed to happen).

This may have to do with the start of the hearings on the OMT program, or it could simply be that ‘the markets’ notice that even in these countries all is not well. On a related note, the IMK ‘Recession indicator‘ shows a very very tiny probability of a German recession soon. This is somehow hard to believe, no matter how sophisticated the ‘machinery’ behind the indicator.

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One response to “Finnish, Dutch and German bond rates – low but going up?

  1. Pingback: Helsingin Sanomat forgets that also Finnish bonds are up also | Arjen polku

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