Tag Archives: Alankomaat

Alankomaille ei mene hyvin – lyhyesti suomeksi.

Päivitys: tässä on hyvä katsaus Alankomaiden ongelmista Der Spiegel -nettisivuilla.

Kuten olen englanniksi kirjoittanut tässä, tässä, tässä ja tässä – Alankomaille ei mene hyvin. Tänä tammikuuna kirjoitin Hesariin mielipideartikkelin (24.1., Vastaväite), missä törmäsin pääkirjoituksen väittettä, että Alankomaat on taloudeltaan  vakaa maa. Me todellakin nähdään nyt, ettei ole ollenkaan näin. Ensin SNS Reaal kaatui ja piti pelastaa – kiinteistöportfolionsa takia. Edelleen Alankomaiden kiinteistömarkkinat ovat ‘vapaassa lennossa’ eli hinnat putoavat. Sen lisäksi kotitalousten velkaantuneisyys on korkempi kuin koskaan ollut Irlannissa ja pankit ovat täysin riippuvaisia siitä, että he saavat rahaa rahamarkkioilla, koska niitten pääoma on lähinnä kiinteistöä. Huono juttu, tällä hetkellä. Sen lisäksi Alankomaissa työttömyys nousee todella nopeasti korkeisiin lukemiin ja koska se on niin riippuvainen viennistä ja kuljetuksesta ‘Hinterlandille’ Alankomaissa tuntuu nyt kipeästi muiden Euromaiden heikko tilannetta.

Eli pitää varmaan odottaa, että Alankomaat pelastaa taas pankkeja tai jotenkin käyttää tavallisten ihmisten talletuksia rahoittaakseen ‘pelastuspakettia’.

Well, whaddaya know: Dutch banking sector update – SNS Reaal

A few days ago I posted some links about the state of the Dutch banking and housing sectors, to show that contrary to what some believe, the Dutch economy isn’t that stable.

And now comes the news about the SNS Reaal banking/insurance company, which might need bailing out by the state. The article I linked to is in Dutch, but here is a rough translation:

The stock value of SNS Reaal decreases sharply. Yesterday it fell by about twelve percent, to 77 cents. After opening of the stock exchange this morning share fell sharply again. This time by nearly 8.5 percent to 71 cents. Confidence in the bank and insurance company has plummeted now a rescue operation by the government seems imminent.

De Telegraaf reported Wednesday based on anonymous sources that pressure is mounting to devise a rescue plan for the bank. The plan would be announced in the coming days. Nationalisation of SNS is a serious option,  the newspaper reported.

SNS received state aid in 2008, and is still in big trouble. It badly needed capital, causing the pressure  to intervene to increase. The bank can not repay state aid from 2008. The three other major Dutch banks, ING, ABN AMRO and Rabobank, are not allowed to take over SNS by the European Commission.

SNS is listed on the AMX since 2006. The offering price was seventeen euros.

So who says that the Eurocrisis’ problems are restricted to ‘Club Med’ countries? Well, not the writers I just linked to.

UPDATE: This graph shows on a very limited scale what is happening to the Netherlands (blue). Sorry about the smallish quality. It is the house price index since 2005, and as is quite clear, Dutch housing prices now follow a similar path to the Spanish ones (green). Finnish housing prices are indicated by the brown line.

Eurostat_Graph_tipsho30

In particular this graph is interesting compared to household indebtedned (gross debt-to-income ratio) below, for Spain, Finland and the Netherlands. It is quite well-known, that the Netherlands for many years had a banking system that was eager to loan money, and many people were encouraged to take as much mortgage as possible, given the believe (then) that housing prices will continue rising (given that the Netherlands is a small country, with little space etc. See the second link in the post on the Dutch economy). So the high level of household indebtedness together with a declining housing price is a very, very bad thing for the Dutch economy – many people will become ‘underwater’ with their mortgages; the whole negative equity drama. Of course, this is the gross debt-to-income ratio, so it does not take into account the possibility of tax deducting mortgage interests etc but still, the picture is quite clear I think.

Debt ratio